Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage: The Impending World Oil Shortage - Revised and Updated Edition

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage: The Impending World Oil Shortage - Revised and Updated Edition

by KennethS.Deffeyes (Author)

Synopsis

Were the energy concerns of 2000 a preview of everyone's future? Will gas lines in the coming years make those of 1973 look short? Is the present chaos in oil prices the leading edge of a more serious crisis that will rock national economies around the world? According to Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist with extensive personal experience in the oil industry, the answer to all of these questions is yes . World oil production is peaking and will start to fall for good sometime during the first decade of the 21st century. In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert - then working at the Shell research lab in Houston - predicted that US oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1971. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's Peak - a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form. Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Deffeyes finds that a peak in world oil production is less than five years away. And he argues that new exploration and production technologies can't save us. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot - and almost certainly will not - be enacted in time to evade short-term catastrophe. Perhaps most surprising is that none of this is news to most specialists and many associated with the petroleum industry. But politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Deffeyes wants to make sure they do. Generally accessible and filled with anecdotes, his book demonstrates to the general reader why a global energy crisis is just around the corner.

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More Information

Format: Hardcover
Pages: 224
Edition: Revised and Updated edition with a New preface by the author
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 05 Oct 2001

ISBN 10: 0691090866
ISBN 13: 9780691090863

Media Reviews
One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2002
Honorable Mention for the 2001 Award for Best Professional/Scholarly Book in Geography and Earth Science, Association of American Publishers
Deffeyes has reached a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world. . . . The conclusion is this: in somewhere between two and six years from now, worldwide oil production will peak. After that, chronic shortages will become a way of life. The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over.---Fred Guterl, Newsweek
A most readable handbook. . . . If [Deffeyes] is right we have, at most, two or three years in which to prepare for yet another price shock, and to accelerate our move away from oil as fuel. The strength of the book lies in its solid background and well-explained basis for that single prediction.---Stuart Young, Nature
An important new book.---Robert Kuttner, Boston Globe
A persuasive prophecy. Hubbert's story is important and needs to be told. I suspect that historians in years to come will recognise Hubbert's Peak as a historical turning point.---Tim Burnhill, New Scientist
In the politics of oil, the left is passionately, sentimentally, tree-huggingly pro-environment, while the right shrugs as it climbs into its official mascot, the biggest sport utility vehicle available. . . . In the slide down Hubbert's Peak, political differences will matter less. If those who planned the Sept. 11 attacks know as much about economics as they do about aeronautics, their next target may be the Saudi Arabian oil fields, on which America, Asia, and Europe are overly dependent.---Martin Nolan, The Boston Globe
There are few things as important nowadays as the energy system, and few books on the subject as thought provoking as this one.---J.R. McNeill, Wilson Quarterly
An ideal freshman reading assignment in any geology course concerned with energy, geological resources, public policy, general science applications in our modern world, or similar topics. All teachers, from high school through graduate level, in all natural sciences, political science, government, business, and engineering courses should read this book and encourage their students to consider its ramifications in their fields.---C. John Mann, Journal of Geoscience
An intelligent, briskly written and refreshingly nontechnical book.---John R. Alden, Baltimore Sun
Deffeyes makes a persuasive case. . . . This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening.---Paul Raeburn, Scientific American
The story behind Hubbert's analysis--is told with engaging wit, humor, and great insight. . . . Deffeyes writes with the taut reasoning of a scientist and the passion of someone raised in the industry. . . . His background is ideal for the subject, and the book is a gem. . . . Read Hubbert's Peak.---Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist
Deffeyes, using Hubbert's methodology, shows that the trajectory of world reserves is closely following the pattern of U.S. discovery and depletion, with just a few decades' lag. Drilling deeper, in more remote locations, and with more elaborate technologies won't tap reserves that don't exist. . . . America's energy policy needs to tilt away from oil and in favor of conservation, new technology, and domestic renewables. The time to act is now, before the next wave of gas lines and rationing is upon us.---Robert Kuttner, Business Week
Kenneth Deffeyes has written a most readable handbook which is well illustrated and has copious notes. But his book is more than that. . . . The strength of this book lies in its solid background.---Stuart Young, Nature
We have long been told that fossil fuels wouldn't last forever, but Deffeyes hypothesis is still startling: Sometime during the next decade, the supply of oil won't keep up with the demand. Because of its broad impact Hubbert's Peak is a must-read for almost everyone--scientists, policy-makers, environmentalists, people who buy cars.---Ann Wagner, NationalJournal.com
Deffeyes's unsettling message is that, although society has been slow to respond to the Hubbert's Peak forecast of world oil decline, a permanent drop in oil production will nevertheless begin within the next decade. Humanity has a brief period in which to wean itself from crude oil, increase energy conservation, and design alternative energy sources.---Dan Johnson, The Futurist
I commend this book . . . to anyone concerned about the future development of planet Earth.---John Parker, Geoscientist
This book sends a message loud and clear: World petroleum production is going to peak within this decade, maybe as early as 2005, but no later than 2009 and there is hardly any way of escaping from this truth. . . . The book is accessible, easy to read and informative.---Subhes C. Bhattacharyya, Natural Resources Forum
This book . . . should be read . . . by all politicians, by all students, no matter what their discipline, and indeed by anyone concerned about their grandchildren's welfare. Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying.---R. C. Selley, Geological Magazine
I read this book with pleasure and profit, learning a great deal painlessly. --Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This book is important in that it is addressed to the general public, which is overwhelmingly ignorant of the fundamentals of earth's resources and basic economics. It will be very useful to teachers, news media personnel, and public policy makers. --Craig W. Van Kirk, Colorado School of Mines
The timing of this book is excellent. Energy issues will be heard with increasing frequency during the next five years, and the general public will be looking for information with which they can make sense of changes in energy supply and prices. --Robert K. Kaufmann, Boston University
Author Bio
Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. He grew up in the oilfields; his father was a pioneer petroleum engineer. At the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston, he was a colleague of M. King Hubbert. He joined the Princeton faculty in 1967 and continued to participate in the petroleum industry as a consultant and as an expert witness. General readers best know Deffeyes as the guide/mentor in John McPhee's series of popular books on geology, collected and republished under the title Annals of the Former World.