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Decisions under Uncertainty: Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

Decisions under Uncertainty: Probabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions

by IanJordaan (Author)

  • New

    Paperback 2011

    $98.51

  • New

    Hardcover 2005

    $137.58
Synopsis

To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.

$98.51

Quantity

20+ in stock

More Information

Format: Paperback
 Pages: 690
 Edition: 1
 Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 21 Jul 2011
ISBN 10: 0521369975
ISBN 13: 9780521369978
Book Overview: Risk assessment theory and practice for graduate engineering students, practising engineers, designers and project managers, first published in 2005.

Media Reviews
Review of the hardback: 'This book takes a very interesting approach to the treatment of uncertainty and its role in decision making. The author, who has extensive background in both academia and industry, uses an intuitive argument whenever possible to derive common laws of probability ... This approach has a distinct advantage for such use in contrast to the more traditional mathematical foundation, from which most engineering students are discouraged by a perceived lack of applicability. Based on the author's experience, it seems that the book would fit best into an undergraduate civil engineering curriculum, since applications are focused on decisions for the built environment.' Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Review of the hardback: 'The comprehensiveness of the book is striking. In an impressive manner the author manages to address the beginner as well as providing useful knowledge on advanced topics such as game theory and entropy. ... In summary, the author has succeeded in providing an up-to-date and comprehensive text on decision techniques that ought to be extensively used in engineering education and practice. In particular, the current trend toward performance-based engineering and advanced simulation models should be clearly be complemented with probabilistic analysis to account for uncertainties and decision analysis to achieve optimized designs.' Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Review of the hardback: '... Ian Jordaan ... has made an important contribution to humanity by writing this comprehensive and thoroughly readable textbook on the subject ... After reading the book one is much better prepared to recognize and effectively address the decision-making process in ambiguous situations where there is considerable uncertainty and the risks are high.' David A. Breslin
This book will clearly contribute to the much needed dissemination of decision analysis techniques into engineering education and practice. It is written in a manner that makes the material accessible to a wide audience - ranging from undergraduate and graduate students to practicing engineers. The text is pedagogically organized, starting with the fundamental concepts and containing a multitude of examples and exercises. The comprehensiveness of the book is striking. In an impressive manner the author manages to address the beginner as well as providing useful knowledge on advanced topics such as game theory and entropy...In summary, the author has succeeded in providing an up-to-date and comprehensive text on decision techniques that ought to be extensively used in engineering education and practice. In particular, the current trend toward performance-based engineering and advanced simulation models should clearly be complemented with probabilistic analysis to achieve optimized designs. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Ian Jordaan ... has made an important contribution to humanity by writing this comprehensive and thoroughly readable textbook on the subject. The book combines the subjects of probability, utility, game theory, entropy, inference, risk, and linear algebra into a single, logical package. The derivations of concepts such as probability and utility are very thoughtful, often beginning with first principles, and include appealing historical references. The discussions on addressing objective and subjective valuations are not only thoughtful but also insightful. For seasoned professionals who believe they have no need for such derivations or historical context, it's easy enough to skip a few pages ahead and dive deep into the subject matter at hand. Each chapter concludes with a diverse set of exercises, ranging from the purely theoretical to the highly practical. Decisions Under Uncertainty appears to be ideally suited for most graduate engineering programs. Professional educators should give serious thought to increasing the emphasis on decision-making, making use of textbooks like this one in their engineering curricula. In addition, Decisions Under Uncertainty is something that even seasoned engineers interesting in honing or refreshing their professional skills should read. After reading the book one is much better prepared to recognize and effectively address the decision-making process in ambiguous situations where there is considerable uncertainty and the risks are high. Marine Technology